| National Weather Service Forecast for:
Waynesville, NC Issued by: National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg/Greer, SC |
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| Updated: 05/02/2024 2:45pm EDT | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| This Afternoon |
Sunny, with a high near 82. South southeast wind around 7 mph. |
| Tonight |
Partly cloudy, with a low around 57. South southwest wind 3 to 7 mph. |
| Friday |
A slight chance of rain showers between 10am and 11am, then showers and thunderstorms likely between 11am and 4pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76. South southwest wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. |
| Friday Night |
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 8pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 11pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11pm and 2am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 2am and 3am, then showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. South southwest wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. |
| Saturday |
Showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 73. South southwest wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. |
| Saturday Night |
Showers and thunderstorms before 1am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. Chance of precipitation is 90%. |
| Sunday |
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11am, then showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 79. Chance of precipitation is 80%. |
| Sunday Night |
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 8pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 2am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 2am and 3am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. Chance of precipitation is 70%. |
| Monday |
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 7am, then showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly sunny, with a high near 77. Chance of precipitation is 70%. |
| Monday Night |
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 8pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 59. Chance of precipitation is 70%. |
| Tuesday |
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 9am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 9am and 2pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. Chance of precipitation is 50%. |
| Tuesday Night |
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 62. Chance of precipitation is 40%. |
| Wednesday |
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. Chance of precipitation is 30%. |
| Wednesday Night |
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 63. Chance of precipitation is 30%. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Waynesville, NC.
NWS Area Forecast Discussion |
534 FXUS62 KGSP 021848 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 248 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and warm high pressure moves off the Carolina coast as a front approaches from the west then stalls over our region for the weekend. This front will result in periodic thunderstorms and showers starting Friday and remaining through the weekend. A general summertime pattern sets up early next week, which will likely support scattered thunderstorm development each afternoon. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 237 PM EDT Thursday: A few small fair weather stratocu have developed across the region this afternoon. Temp/dewpt trends look good. What a nice day, courtesy of an upper ridge on the East Coast supporting sfc high pressure to our east. No changes. The upper ridge to our east will move slowly offshore tonight, allowing moisture to move back in from the south/southwest toward morning. A lead short wave lifting out of the trof well to our west will move over the mtns after midnight, but minimal response is expected through sunrise as forcing remains weak with this feature. Clouds will increase, however, which will help to keep min temps relatively mild. Friday looks to be a trend toward a more active stretch of weather. With the upper ridge offshore, we end up in a deep SW flow aloft that has several embedded short waves, the first of which will linger across the region through peak heating. The situation appears relatively benign, with precip probs slowly ramping up from the west with likely over the mtns and chances east of the mtns. We may get up to 1000-1500 J/kg of sfc-based CAPE to work with in the afternoon, which will give us the environment to support a few thunderstorms, but for now the severe storm risk appears to be low. High temps should be on the order of 5-10 degrees above normal. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 215 PM Thursday: A ridge of high pressure slides off the east coast as an unsettled pattern sets up for the weekend. By the start of the period on Friday night, a series of shortwaves traverses toward the CWA. A well saturated profile is expected to enhance rainfall chances by Saturday and into Sunday. However, the area will be in a weak flow regime and any upper air support would be minimal. Little if any DPVA appears in the GFS as the 500mb gradient remains broad. This will limit the amount of thunderstorms that could occur, along with minimal instability. At this time, a small amount of muCAPE exists during the day on Saturday, which could be enough for some lightning strikes and thunder. Strong storms could occur, but confidence for the potential for severe weather is low. This could change as Saturday gets closer and will continue to monitor closely. Despite widespread showers expected. The QPF response is not impressive with the Storm totals struggling to reach 1 inch between Friday night and Sunday morning, with the somewhat higher amounts east of the mountains. Temperatures on Saturday will be a tick or two cooler than the past few days with most of the area reaching the upper 70s. By Sunday, showers continue and start to taper off by the end of the period, but at least chance PoP remains for Sunday. Winds are expected to remain relatively light with low end gusts possible in the eastern NC Piedmont on Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 220 PM Thursday: The general pattern remains similar at the beginning of the extended period with a broad flow aloft and shortwaves moving through. Meanwhile, out west, a trough begins to develop and swing towards the central CONUS. Another, less impressive shortwave over the central plains moves into the NE, sending a ripple downstream toward the CWA. Guidance does keep a deep layer of moisture remaining across the southeast, meaning PoPs will remain elevated Monday before tapering off Monday night. By Tuesday, a strong upper low swings northward over the Dakotas and guidance from the EURO and GFS have a boundary extending toward the CWA. The better forcing remains to the NW and far out of the CWA, but this could change. Too much uncertainty exists with this system, but showers and rainfall look to occur. This makes for yet another unsettled pattern, but nothing that looks concerning in the way of any severe weather at this point. High pressure could start to creep back in toward the end of the period or mid-week, kicking up daytime temps into the first 90s of the season. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect VFR conditions to prevail at all terminals thru the late morning on Friday, as sfc high pressure moves off to the east. Most places will see a few high-based fair weather stratocu thru peak heating, with bases generally 050-060, then those clouds will dissipate with sunset. Wind expected to be light S to SE thru the afternoon, then light S overnight. Not much chance of mtn valley fog again overnight because of a lack of moisture. On Friday, moisture will return from the southwest well ahead of our next cold front. Wind should be S. At this point, it seems unlikely that any great chance of showers will reach the terminals before the end of the period, except maybe the very end at KAVL and also the very end at KCLT, because of the 30 hour. Outlook: VFR conditions are expected thru most of Friday. More numerous showers and thunderstorms and their associated restric- tions are likely on Saturday and possibly into Sunday with the passage of another cold front. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEO NEAR TERM...PM SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM...CP AVIATION...PM