National Weather Service Forecast for: Waynesville, NC Issued by: National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg/Greer, SC

Updated: 06/18/2025 6:25am EDT

Waynesville, NC

Today Chance Showers And T-Storms Juneteenth Chance Showers And T-Storms Friday Sunny Saturday Sunny Sunday Sunny then Slight Chance Showers And T-Storms Monday Sunny then Chance Showers And T-Storms Tuesday Sunny then Chance Showers And T-Storms   Hi 82 °F Hi 81 °F Hi 84 °F Hi 86 °F Hi 87 °F Hi 88 °F Hi 89 °F     Tonight Chance Showers And T-Storms Thursday Night Showers And T-Storms Friday Night Mostly Clear Saturday Night Mostly Clear Sunday Night Slight Chance Showers And T-Storms then Mostly Clear Monday Night Chance Showers And T-Storms then Mostly Clear Tuesday Night Chance Showers And T-Storms   Lo 65 °F Lo 60 °F Lo 60 °F Lo 62 °F Lo 64 °F Lo 64 °F Lo 64 °F

 

Today	Patchy fog before 8am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11am and 3pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely between 3pm and 4pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. West southwest wind around 9 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Tonight	A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am, then patchy fog between 4am and 5am, then patchy fog and a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Southwest wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Juneteenth	Patchy fog before 7am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 7am and 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11am and 1pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely between 1pm and 2pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely between 2pm and 4pm, then showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 81. West southwest wind around 9 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Thursday Night	Showers and thunderstorms before 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. West northwest wind 1 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Friday	Sunny, with a high near 84. North northwest wind around 3 mph.
Friday Night	Mostly clear, with a low around 60.
Saturday	Sunny, with a high near 86.
Saturday Night	Mostly clear, with a low around 62.
Sunday	A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Sunny, with a high near 87.
Sunday Night	A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Mostly clear, with a low around 64.
Monday	A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Sunny, with a high near 88. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Monday Night	A chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Mostly clear, with a low around 64. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tuesday	A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Sunny, with a high near 89. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tuesday Night	A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 64.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Waynesville, NC.

NWS Area Forecast Discussion

 

338
FXUS62 KGSP 181050
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
650 AM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid, with afternoon thunder expected today, and increasing
coverage of showers and storms on Thursday ahead of a cold front.
The front crosses the area Thursday night, ushering in drier air
and quieter weather for the first half of the weekend.  By the
latter half of this weekend, heat and humidity work back into the
area in full force.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 631 AM EDT Wednesday: Starting out with mild temps once
again, and large patches of low stratus and some fog over the mtns
and southerly upslope areas.  The forecast continues with very few
changes compared to the past few days as the pattern is essentially
the same...for the time being. An upper anticyclone remains parked
off the Southeast coast and a weakness aloft persists to our west
that keeps a WSW flow across the region for the next 24 hours. A
short wave moving east across the Plains tonight will move across
the MS River and then move over the OH/TN Valleys tonight. This
particular trof looks more progressive and more strongly forced
than the last few, however, so some changes are in store. Until we
get there, looks like another day with diurnally-driven showers
and thunderstorms with precip probs close to climo suggested
by the CAMs. That means the mtns and foothills will have the
best chance, but areas south/east of I-85 might not get much,
at least that would be the plan. There`s no indication at the
current time that we would get any organized convection like we
had last evening, though the environment would appear to be very
similar with sfc-based CAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg and about
20 kt of unidirectional effective bulk shear. There might be
enough dry air aloft and dCAPE to support an isolated wind damage
producer. Any convection should diminish in the middle part of
the evening. Otherwise, looks like a typical warm and humid summer
day/night with temps running a few degrees above normals.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 218 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) A robust cold front crosses the area on Thursday, producing
organized convection with a threat of damaging winds.

2) Hot and humid afternoon conditions on Thursday before the
thunder arrives.  Drier air moves in behind the front and tamps
down the humidity on Friday.

3) Only isolated convection develops Friday.

A cold front will approach the region from the west early Thursday,
crossing the area through the afternoon and evening hours and
pushing east of the forecast area Thursday night.  Ensembles
continue to support a daytime frontal passage, taking full advantage
of instability on the order of 1600-2200 J/kg sbCAPE and producing
a line of prefrontal showers and thunderstorms.  A 500mb speed max
will lift across the I-77 corridor through the afternoon hours;
deep layer shear will be 20-25kts across the bulk of the CWA, but
for the NC Piedmont, could wind up as high as ~30kts.  Certainly,
this is sufficiently high for organized multicell convection.
The 00z suite of HREF guidance now extends far enough out to
start to see its handling of Thursday`s convection...and indeed,
all its members have some flavor of an organized convective
line crossing the forecast area during the afternoon Thursday.
A slot of dry mid-layer air will boost dCAPE values to 800-1000
J/kg...supportive of a damaging wind risk, especially in combination
with the organized nature of the convection and potential for RIJ
formation.  SPC`s Day 2 Slight Risk across the I-77 corridor and
Marginal Risk across the rest of the CWA, which remain unchanged
since yesterday, continue to look in line with the latest thinking.

Drier conditions will build in behind the front on Friday.  This
should somewhat tamp down heat index values - which on Thursday
will climb into the upper 90s across much of the forecast area,
and even lower 100s in some spots south of I-85 - simply by virtue
of dewpoint drop.  The bigger impact may still come from afternoon
mixing: GFS and NAM profiles for most of the forecast area depict
little capping in the airmass behind the front, and mixing up to
nearly 700mb Friday afternoon...which should allow the BL to tap
into a slot of very dry air there.  Once again...think the MOS
products may have a better handle on dewpoints for Friday than the
NBM...which is good news for anyone looking for more reasonable
afternoon heat.  Convection should also be hindered by the lack
of low-level moisture, slightly cooler temps, and general lack
of synoptic forcing...except over the mountains, where terrain
forcing may be enough to spin up a few ridgetop cells.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 244 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Only isolated convection is expected each afternoon through
the medium range.

2) Increasingly hot and humid conditions develop through the end of
the weekend, resulting in potentially dangerous heat index values.

Still looks as though the subtropical ridge on Saturday will
begin evolve into a massive 598dm upper anticyclone through the
weekend.  The resulting subsidence should generally quell afternoon
convection, leading to increasingly isolated / nonexistent coverage
over the weekend despite steadily increasing humidity as surface
moisture slowly filters back in from the south.  The big story
will become heat...as by Sunday and Monday the combined effects of
the heat dome and moisture increase will result in afternoon heat
index values climbing into the low 100s for much of the low terrain.

Beginning Monday...low-level moisture will improve to the point
that at least isolated to widely scattered ridgetop convection
appears possible over the NC mountains.  Presently, though, there
appears to be no risk of severe weather or hydro issues.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: The main concern at issuance time is the
gradually-expanding area of IFR stratus creeping toward KCLT. This
low cloud deck will be fighting eastward into the rising sun, which
will start the process of mixing out by 14Z at the latest. All
other terminals are already dealing temporary and variable
ceiling and vis this morning, but this should mix out quickly
with minimal heating. After that, we have a typical summer day in
store. As for convection this afternoon, the guidance favors only
the mtns/foothills at this time, so only KAVL and KHKY warrant a
PROB30. Wind will be SW, with a bit more flow aloft mixing down
to occasional gusts. All this should go away an hour or so after
sunset. Expect more low stratus and fog toward daybreak Thursday.

Outlook: Showers and thunderstorms are expected each afternoon
and evening through Thursday. Drier conditions return behind a
cold front Friday into Saturday. Fog and/or low stratus will be
possible each morning.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...PM

NWS GSP Office Area Forecast Discussion